Thursday July 2

TODAY’S EXPECTED MARKET MOVEMENTS

COMMODITY 14-15 Season 15-16 season
Wheat – $2 – $4
Barley – $2 – $4
Canola Unchanged Unchanged
Sorghum – $2 – $4

 

INTERNATIONAL

Wheat lost much of what was gained the night before, with profit-taking and technical selling occurring over the day. Expect that US growers (in addition to Australian growers) have been selling on the recent rally too. Corn and beans unchanged and slightly weaker respectively, propped up vs wheat due to weather concerns in both US (wet) and EU (dry). Weaker Australian dollar will buffer some of this downward movement, but still expect wheat markets to be 3-4 down this morning.

DOMESTIC

Markets strengthened again yesterday, however the first signs of a weakening basis have begun to appear. This tells us growers are selling, even if it’s only a minute percentage of expected yields. $300 at most sites around the state for wheat has certainly been achievable.

 

MARKET SETTLEMENTS & TODAY’S PRICING INDICATIONS

Market data Settlement Daily Movement
CBOT Wheat 587.50 /bu (JUN-15) – 27.25
CBOT Corn 413.75 usc/bu (JUN-15) – 0.25
WCE Canola 541.80 CAD$/mt (JUN-15) + 18.80
ASX APW1 Wheat 327.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
ASX F1 Barley 268.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
AUD / USD 0.7646 spot Weaker
AUD / CAD 0.9625 spot Weaker

Wednesday July 1

TODAY’S EXPECTED MARKET MOVEMENTS

COMMODITY 14-15 Season 15-16 season
Wheat + $8 + $10
Barley + $6 + $9
Canola + $5 + $7
Sorghum + $6 + $9

 

INTERNATIONAL

The release of the latest USDA stocks and acreage report was very supportive to markets last night. Corn and beans were the main drivers with lower than expected stocks and estimated plantings seeing corn limit up (30c/bu) and beans up 53c/bu. Wheat report wasn’t overly bullish, with higher stocks and planted area, however was a follower of beans/corn; the persistence of wet conditions in the US would be also playing on the markets mind. Australian markets will be stronger today, especially with dry forecasts continuing.

 

DOMESTIC

As markets continue to show their volatility, we continue to see growers making first sales of new crop – particularly in areas where 60mm+ fell 2 weeks ago. With markets as volatile as this its worthwhile remembering that the east coast of Australia has had a very difficult time exporting over the last 6-8 months due to our non-competitiveness on a price front vs other origins. In this environment, new export pathways have been forged, with Emerald Grain’s Melbourne Port Terminal setting a new monthly record of 50,000t packed into containers for the month of June.

 

MARKET SETTLEMENTS & TODAY’S PRICING INDICATIONS

Market data Settlement Daily Movement
CBOT Wheat 614.75 /bu (JUN-15) + 34.25
CBOT Corn 414.00 usc/bu (JUN-15) + 28.75
WCE Canola 541.80 CAD$/mt (JUN-15) + 18.80
ASX APW1 Wheat 316.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
ASX F1 Barley 268.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
AUD / USD 0.7704 spot Stronger
AUD / CAD 0.9630 spot Stronger

Tuesday June 30

TODAY’S EXPECTED MARKET MOVEMENTS

COMMODITY 14-15 Season 15-16 season
Wheat + $3 + $5
Barley + $2 + $4
Canola Unchanged + $2
Sorghum + $2 + $4

 

INTERNATIONAL

Wet conditions in the US, and continued dry and hot conditions in the EU and Canada helped to drive the wheat stronger again overnight. In the US the concern is over the impact of rainfall on the quality of SRW crop, and the harvest delays associated with the wet. Market is reporting that the funds have basically squared away their short wheat position over the last two days of buying. Beans and corn didn’t follow wheat last night, remaining unchanged; this been associated with marketers profiting on the recent rally.

 

DOMESTIC

With markets rallying hard over the weekend I reckon traders by now will have a pretty firm idea where the rains been falling – oddly enough it appears to correspond closely with where new crop grain and oilseed is being sold! Greece’s future, heat in France, dry in Canada, wet conditions in the USA as well as a USDA report – it’s going to be an interesting week in grain markets!

 

MARKET SETTLEMENTS & TODAY’S PRICING INDICATIONS

Market data Settlement Daily Movement
CBOT Wheat 575.50 /bu (JUN-15) + 13.25
CBOT Corn 383.25 usc/bu (JUN-15) – 1.75
WCE Canola 522.60 CAD$/mt (JUN-15) + 10.80
ASX APW1 Wheat 323.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
ASX F1 Barley 268.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
AUD / USD 0.7676 spot Stronger
AUD / CAD 0.9518 spot Stronger

Monday June 29

 

TODAY’S EXPECTED MARKET MOVEMENTS

COMMODITY 14-15 Season 15-16 season
Wheat + $8 + $10
Barley + $6 + $8
Canola Unchanged Unchanged
Sorghum + $6 + $8

 

INTERNATIONAL

Markets were much stronger on Friday night. The key drivers being the wet weather impacting the quality of the SRW crop in the states, and wet conditions also affecting corn/beans in eastern corn belt. Funds were buyers of all commodities on Friday night. Dryness continues to affect Europe and Australia. The AUD is weaker today too. Market will keep a close eye on Greece with any decision made impacting financial and commodity markets.  Though Australian markets will be stronger, expect basis to weaken with increased grower selling.

 

DOMESTIC

Today will be interesting to say the least, with a sharp rally on the international markets Friday night it will be wait and see where we settle for pricing today. If you are yet to open your pricing strategy for the coming season the new crop numbers are going to be very hard to ignore on wheat and barley. Remember selling new crop at this time of the year isn’t about selling your total expected tonnes for next harvest but about grabbing some of this $$$$$ to start your price averaging off on the right foot.

 

MARKET SETTLEMENTS & TODAY’S PRICING INDICATIONS

Market data Settlement Daily Movement
CBOT Wheat 562.025 /bu (JUN-15) + 30.25
CBOT Corn 385.00 usc/bu (JUN-15) + 8.50
WCE Canola 509.00 CAD$/mt (JUN-15) – 7.20
ASX APW1 Wheat 316.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
ASX F1 Barley 268.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
AUD / USD 0.7650 spot Weaker
AUD / CAD 0.9426 spot Weaker

Friday June 26

TODAY’S EXPECTED MARKET MOVEMENTS

COMMODITY 14-15 Season 15-16 season
Wheat + $3 + $5
Barley + $2 + $4
Canola + $2 + $4
Sorghum + $2 + $4

 

INTERNATIONAL

Offshore markets continue to find support with a sea of green across the board overnight driven by short covering in front of adverse weather in major producing origins, heavy rainfall through the US is impacting on soybean and corn production while dry weather across Canada and northern EU is trimming winter crop prospects. The AUD steady at 0.7735, expect all commodities to be up today.

 

DOMESTIC

There’s a trickle of grower selling happening at the moment. Some think that they have kicked the can down the road long enough in warehouse and are capitalising on the recent lift in wheat pricing, others deciding to park grain up until the next financial year think warehousing has served its purpose and are selling as well. We have also been booking delivered and ex-farm wheat into domestic consumers with people happy to let some of their on farm volume go at historical strong values.

 

MARKET SETTLEMENTS & TODAY’S PRICING INDICATIONS

Market data Settlement Daily Movement
CBOT Wheat 532.00 /bu (JUN-15) + 14.00
CBOT Corn 376.50 usc/bu (JUN-15) + 10.00
WCE Canola 516.80 CAD$/mt (JUN-15) + 4.90
ASX APW1 Wheat 314.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
ASX F1 Barley 268.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
AUD / USD 0.7741 spot Stronger
AUD / CAD 0.9543 spot Weaker

Thursday June 25

TODAY’S EXPECTED MARKET MOVEMENTS

COMMODITY 14-15 Season 15-16 season
Wheat Unchanged Unchanged
Barley Unchanged Unchanged
Canola + $1 + $2
Sorghum Unchanged Unchanged

 

INTERNATIONAL

Overnight markets were largely steady as wheat tried initially to go higher on weather concerns in major origins however ended marginally down, corn remained unchanged, and the oilseed sector was mixed with soybeans lower on profit taking and Canadian canola firmer. The AUD lower by 30 points which will support local AUD values, expect wheat, barley and canola markets to be near unchanged today.

 

DOMESTIC

Delivered up country and Western Districts wheat numbers looked attractive yesterday at circa $300mt for ASW/SFW. Perception may be that there isn’t a lot of grain on farm and from a historically volume perspective that’s not a bad assumption, particularly where barley is concerned. However, we are booking wheat none the less as some don’t want to hear “too late, too late” will be the cry when the man with the high price has passed you by. Notably those selling are not pricing all their tonnage in one hit which is a smart move so there is volume, just an apprehensive sales pattern. If you would like us to work your on farm volume please call in with your tonnages.

 

MARKET SETTLEMENTS & TODAY’S PRICING INDICATIONS

Market data Settlement Daily Movement
CBOT Wheat 518.00 /bu (JUN-15) – 3.50
CBOT Corn 366.50 usc/bu (JUN-15) – 1.00
WCE Canola 512.30 CAD$/mt (JUN-15) + 6.00
ASX APW1 Wheat 314.00 ( JUN -15) – 2.00
ASX F1 Barley 268.00 ( JUN -15) Steady
AUD / USD 0.7704 spot Weaker
AUD / CAD 0.9552 spot Stronger

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